Welcome to our first instalment of Geopolitical Pulse, where we outline the key global risks we are monitoring and their implications for investment portfolios.
From the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine and other military risks the world over, to emerging political schisms and alliances, we review the geopolitical landscape each quarter to inform our tactical positioning and help avoid material risks to our clients’ capital.
Some of the developments we track, such as climate change, will influence our investment decisions for decades to come. Others, such as the potential for disorder or political violence around the US presidential elections, may fall away relatively quickly.
Our methodology
Geopolitical Pulse is based on a risk-monitoring approach we have developed and used for some time at Sarasin & Partners. We have found it to be a useful tool when thinking about multi-faceted, variable and often ‘fuzzy’ risks.
The qualitative methodology is simple but practical, with each risk assigned a score (1-5), a probability (1-5) and a total risk score (1-25 = risk x probability).
Our first priority is to protect our clients’ investments; we hope that Geopolitical Pulse offers some insights into the ever-shifting landscape of risks that we consider. We review events of the previous quarter to inform our tactical positioning for the period ahead.
Important information
If you are a private investor, you should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.
This document has been approved by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul’s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England & Wales with registered number OC329859 which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.
It has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the document is based has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verified such information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.
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Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the J. Safra Sarasin Holding Ltd group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of his or her own judgment. Sarasin & Partners LLP and/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document. If you are a private investor you should not rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.
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