Welcome to our first instalment of Geopolitical Pulse, where we outline the key global risks we are monitoring and their implications for investment portfolios.
From the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine and other military risks the world over, to emerging political schisms and alliances, we review the geopolitical landscape each quarter to inform our tactical positioning and help avoid material risks to our clients’ capital.
Some of the developments we track, such as climate change, will influence our investment decisions for decades to come. Others, such as the potential for disorder or political violence around the US presidential elections, may fall away relatively quickly.
Our methodology
Geopolitical Pulse is based on a risk-monitoring approach we have developed and used for some time at Sarasin & Partners. We have found it to be a useful tool when thinking about multi-faceted, variable and often ‘fuzzy’ risks.
The qualitative methodology is simple but practical, with each risk assigned a score (1-5), a probability (1-5) and a total risk score (1-25 = risk x probability).
Our first priority is to protect our clients’ investments; we hope that Geopolitical Pulse offers some insights into the ever-shifting landscape of risks that we consider. We review events of the previous quarter to inform our tactical positioning for the period ahead.
Important information
This document is for investment professionals in South Africa only and should not be relied upon by private investors.
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