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The financial outlook is particularly opaque – yes, some real value is starting to appear as markets fall, but while central banks continue to throttle demand, caution is needed for a while longer.

The first half of 2022 saw the worst start for US equities since 1970, with no single sector in positive territory except energy. The sell-off has been extraordinarily widespread, with government, corporate and junk bonds all showing negative returns, alongside bear markets in most equity markets. Two unlisted asset classes showed surprisingly strong positive returns – private equity and global real estate. US residential house prices rose by an extraordinary 20.4%1 in the year to May, while prime London rents climbed by the greatest extent in two decades.2 This was of little help to investors in listed markets where the past six months, especially for balanced mandates, have been among the most difficult on record.

The causes of the sell-off are not hard to find

The causes of the sell-off are not difficult to find; war, inflation and high valuations are all contributors. Most important, though, is central banks’ determination to tighten policy and bring demand back into balance with supply, which has been seriously damaged by the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine. This will almost certainly trigger a recession – probably at the end of 2022 – as the price of bringing inflation back close to target by 2024.

Western central bankers are acting aggressively because they were slow to anticipate the problems last year. In mid-2021, consumers were flush with cash from stimulus cheques and enforced saving during the pandemic. They were prepared to spend liberally as economies reopened, while on the supply side delivery chains were seriously impaired by the pandemic and China’s prolonged COVID-19 restrictions. From microchips to car parts, manufacturers across the world were unable to meet demand, underpinning much of the inflation shock we face today. Better late than never, central bankers are now tightening interest rate policy, and rapidly. It is this that has most destabilised markets.

Inflation risks are still climbing, especially in the UK

Three factors add to today’s inflationary challenges. First, labour markets are exceptionally tight, with job openings exceeding the unemployed for the first time in recent history in the UK and at unprecedented levels in the USA. Second, the surge in European gas prices and a potential cessation of Russian gas exports to Europe risks further inflationary pressures and recession risks. Inflation in the euro zone was already running at 8.6% in June, the highest since the bloc was created in 1999. Third, UK inflation continues to climb, principally because sterling is weak, down 4% this year on a trade-weighted basis and 11% against the US dollar, and this has pushed up energy and import costs. Political turmoil and a rapidly widening trade deficit mean this is unlikely to be reversed quickly.

The first half of 2022 saw the worst start for US equities since 1970, with no single sector in positive territory except energy.

How likely is a ‘mild’ recession?

We forecast a US recession in late Q4 2022 or early 2023, but there is hope that it may be relatively mild. First, personal balance sheets are in good shape after the enforced saving of the pandemic years – we estimate there are USD$3tn of surplus savings compared to pre-COVID trends. Second, US and global banks are robust, in marked contrast to 2008. Last week all 33 major US banks passed the Federal Reserve’s stress tests. Third, labour markets are in rude health, so a deep recession, given unemployment rates at just 3.8% in the US and the UK, would be very unusual. In other words, expect a shallow, ‘jobful’ recession.

What does this mean for interest rates?

The outlook suggests three possible paths for interest rates (we focus on US interest rates for this section):

  • The first, and most likely scenario, is a series of rapid rate increases that slow the economy and inflation, and, most importantly, cap inflation expectations. Under this outcome we see US rates peaking at around 3.25% in H1 2023.
  • The second scenario sees inflation being much stickier – particularly if the energy crisis worsens. Rates move higher for longer (to around 4%) and a deeper recession is needed to squeeze prices back close to target.
  • The third envisages a major market dislocation or financial crisis occurring as rates rise. Possible causes include widespread emerging world defaults, a collapse in the shadow banking system (China may be vulnerable) or a systemic failure that freezes the crypto ecosystem. In this case US rates peak at around 2.5% and then retreat.

For clients who remember the 1970s these rate increases may seem modest, considering that UK CPI is already at 9.1%. However, there are clear differences between then and now; in the 1970s inflation had been rising for longer and led to higher and more ingrained inflation expectations. The price of oil during the 1970s rose by a multiple of the rise seen over the past year, and the US economy was then almost three times more energy dependent (in terms of barrels of oil per unit of GDP). Finally, governments today are far more indebted now than they were in the 1970s – a material rise in interest rates today would likely result in a ruinous decline in government finances. A shallow recession, with rapid but limited rate rises, remains our base case.

Investment implications

For much of the past decade the rule of ‘don’t fight the Fed’ has meant staying fully invested to benefit from generous central bank policy – culminating in the extraordinary post-COVID equity rally of March 2020. Today, this phenomenon may reverse. If, as we have argued, central bankers genuinely want to tighten financial conditions and slow global demand, then the message for investors is clear – stay cautious for a while longer. Yes, we have seen substantial repricing of assets this year, with world equities declining more than 20%, but that was achieved by a contraction in valuations. By our measure, world equity PE multiples3 have fallen back from a peak of nearly 25 times to around 15.5 today (the 20-year average is 15.9 times). Corporate confidence is surprisingly robust, with share buy-backs continuing at record rates, but early signs of caution abound. Global corporate fundraising has cooled sharply, falling by 25% from the first half of 2021, while US equity fund raising fell to just USD$40bn, the lowest since 1999.4 Bond yields are also rallying on recession fears. All these signs indicate a heightened risk of profit warnings in the months ahead.

Our response has been to keep our underweight equity allocation for a little longer and retain a focus on defensive franchises and sustainable equity income. We do not intend to reduce equities dramatically from here. We note, for example, that declines in US equities of greater than 15% in the first half of the year have historically been followed by positive returns in the second half of the year. Across other assets, slower economic growth has led us to start reducing our aggressive underweight in government bonds. At the same time, we continue to overweight alternatives, which have produced standout returns over the past year. These exposures include gold and other inflation-linked assets, including infrastructure and renewables. Finally, we continue to keep precautionary positions in cash to provide funds for opportunistic purchases should any substantial sell-offs occur.

So caution today, but as the economic glass starts to clear there will be a host of opportunities. Equity yields in Europe are already mouth-watering, and the massive capital investment needed to create a low-carbon economy will provide a huge source of future earnings. Our thematic equity holdings should be the long-term winners and, as the world reopens for travel, our analysts will be hot on their trail.

1Case Schiller House Price Index June 2022
2Savills June 2022
3Global PE Multiple 1 year forward Factset
4Financial Times 2nd July 2022

HOUSE REPORT Q3 2022

The first half of 2022 saw the worst start for US equities since 1970, with no single sector in positive territory except energy. We are by no means out of the woods yet, and markets may have further to fall. So caution today, but as the economic glass starts to clear we explore the host of opportunities for long-term thematic investors in our latest House Report.

Download the full report

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It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions..This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

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What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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This information on this website is only for South African residents who are:

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

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If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in Ireland by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for Irish residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
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It is not for distribution outside Ireland and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions. This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than Ireland.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for UK residents only and not for distribution outside the UK. If you are not a UK resident, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for UK resident charity only and not for distribution outside the UK. If you are not a UK resident charity, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for UK residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions..This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for UK residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions..This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for South African residents only and not for distribution outside South Africa. If you are not a South African resident, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South African residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions. This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

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