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Welcome to the weekly macroeconomic round-up, where we spotlight a few of the most significant events in the last few weeks.

UK retail sales contracted in December as higher inflation and Omicron uncertainty weighed on consumers

After robust growth in November, UK retail sales contracted by 3.7% in December. Looking behind the numbers, the spread of Omicron appears to have deterred shoppers from visiting the high street, resulting in lower footfall and a 7.1% fall in sales of clothing and non-food items.

Despite December’s decline, retail sales have held their ground above pre-pandemic levels – at least for the time being. High consumer price inflation (CPI), which hit 5.4% for the 12 months to December, may be making consumers more cautious in their spending habits. Given this, it might be reasonable to expect further sales weakness in the months ahead.

The CPI’s new peak is the highest rate of inflation recorded in the past 30 years. Much of the rise has been driven by energy prices, which are likely to propel UK inflation yet higher in 2022, particularly once the price cap on gas and electricity retail prices is increased in April to reflect higher wholesale energy prices.

Market review

The equity market sell-off gathered momentum last week, as investors’ concerns grew over tightening financial conditions in the US economy and the likely knock-on effect this might have among highly valued companies. The NASDAQ index, which is mostly comprised of information technology companies, entered into correction territory (a drawdown of more than 10%) for the first time since the outset of the pandemic. US equities were generally weak, dragging the headline global equities index, the MSCI All Companies World Index, down more than 4%.

In contrast, the Chinese equity market, which was the worst performing major equity market last year, recovered some lost ground following the decision by the People’s Bank of China to loosen monetary policy in response to slowing economic growth.

Finally, the Brent Crude oil price topped $88 for the first time since 2014 last week as fears over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, combined with concerns that OPEC+ are approaching their production capacity constraints, led some market commentators to suggest that $100 oil is not only possible but likely.

Look out for next week’s update, where we’ll be focusing on the Fed policy meeting, US GDP and PMI survey data.


All details in this article are provided for information purposes only and should not be misinterpreted as investment advice or taxation advice.

Where the data in this article comes partially from third party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind.  Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third party data.

© 2022 Sarasin & Partners LLP – all rights reserved.  This article can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact [email protected]

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

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If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in Ireland by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for Irish residents who are:

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It is not for distribution outside Ireland and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions. This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than Ireland.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for UK residents only and not for distribution outside the UK. If you are not a UK resident, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for UK resident charity only and not for distribution outside the UK. If you are not a UK resident charity, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

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By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for UK residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions..This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in the UK by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for UK residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside the UK and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions..This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed

Who can use this site

This website and the information contained within is for South African residents only and not for distribution outside South Africa. If you are not a South African resident, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South African residents who are:

  • investment professionals;
  • our product distributor partners; or
  • regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by private investors. It is not available for access by US Nationals

Residents of the United States of America and Hong Kong are not permitted to access the website of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group of companies according to legal restrictions imposed by their respective jurisdictions. This will also apply to all other jurisdictions where similar restrictions exist.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

Cookies and other policies

Please note that your internet browser needs to accept cookies in order to enter this website. A cookie is a small data file that is used by websites to send information to the user’s internet browser and the internet browser to return the information to the website. If it is not the case already, you may need to make changes to your internet browser settings to accept the cookies required to enter this website.

By continuing to access this website, you agree to the above warnings and important information. Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

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