Global markets are being shaped by two powerful forces: geopolitics and the SpaceX IPO.
In the Middle East, the ceasefire with Iran has calmed energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to normalise overnight, but investors are growing confident that disruption to oil supplies can be contained.
Meanwhile, the US is experiencing an extraordinary period of capital raising. The record-breaking SpaceX IPO – priced to assume years of future success – precedes anticipated listings from Anthropic and ChatGPT, both expected to command similarly ambitious valuations despite being loss-making. This enormous demand is reinforcing confidence in the long-term growth potential of AI.
Yet a wave of equity and bond issuance from AI beneficiaries, combined with declining share buybacks, means investors are being asked to absorb a historically high level of new supply.
So can markets cope?
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