While equity markets climbed in 2025, this often appeared counterintuitive given the challenges facing the global economy – including intensifying geopolitical rivalry and rising tariff barriers. The risk-led rally that followed US President Trump’s 2 April speech on tariffs was driven largely by retail flows, high-
2025 delivered an extraordinary sequence of geopolitical shocks — mostly coming directly, or indirectly, from the Trump White House. They began with the highest US tariffs in 80 years and ended the year with the capture of President Maduro. 2026 has already started with the escalation risk of US action in Greenland, against another NATO member.
However, despite this uncertainty, risk assets have continued to march upwards with global equities, emerging markets, credit and commodities resolutely climbing and the dollar falling through 2025.
Nevertheless, equity valuations are high, credit spreads are narrow, and Trump’s latest clash over Greenland appears more deep-seated this time around. The continual ascent of the gold may also be the result of central bank ‘hoarding’ or it might carry a message of caution ahead.
Guy Monson looks to address the question whether the extraordinary resilience of risk assets that we saw in 2025 can now be sustained into 2026.
Watch the video below.