Poor are more vulnerable to climate change
Our friends at the Smith School, Oxford, have been busy again. This time they have been exploring the link between climate change and macroeconomic fluctuations by examining temperature and precipitation changes across countries and regions.
“The decomposition of temperature and precipitation variances allowed us to assess the contribution of the world and regional factors to climate fluctuations. We found that the world factor accounted for a significant proportion (52 %) of temperature fluctuations globally, with higher contributions in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia.”
Their findings include:
- Countries with lower GDP per capita and a higher share of agriculture are more exposed to global temperature changes
- Higher energy consumption per capita is associated with lower exposure to global temperature fluctuations
- Lower emissions intensity and a lower proportion of energy derived from fossil fuels correlate with slightly higher exposure.
Socioeconomic factors also play a role:
- Countries with lower exposure to global temperature changes have higher life expectancy and secondary school enrolment rates, and lower urbanisation rates.
- Countries with higher readiness demonstrated lower exposure, indicating that well-developed strategies for addressing climate change can mitigate the impact of rising temperatures.
The full text of Vulnerability to climate change: evidence from a dynamic factor model is available here: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-08/Vulnerability-to-Climate-Change-Evidence-from-a-Dynamic-Factor-Model.pdf
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