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Welcome to the weekly macroeconomic round-up, where we spotlight a few of the most significant events in the last few weeks.

US inflation continues to climb

 US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose again in May, up by 1% and exceeding expectations for a 0.7% rise. This brings the annual US inflation figure to 8.6%. Perhaps most concerning for investors and consumers is that core inflation, which strips out energy prices, rose 0.6%, indicating a broadening and persistence of price increases. Perhaps unsurprisingly, airline fares saw a dramatic increase of 12.6% month-on-month. New and used vehicle prices also increased, up 1% and 1.8% respectively, while rent and mortgage costs increased by 0.6%.

Food prices are going up as shocks to global food supply chains and rises in energy and fertiliser costs feed through to consumers. Restaurant and grocery prices are moving higher, but recent rises in the price of food consumed at home are particularly strong, climbing by more than 1% per month.

The University of Michigan’s long-term inflation expectation measure reached one of its highest levels since records began in the mid-1990s. The index suggests that inflation will remain at 3.3%, well above the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) target of 2%. Adding to investor concerns, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit an all-time-low this month, far below consensus estimates.

UK GDP data adds to recession concerns

Despite a consensus estimate of a 0.1% rise, UK GDP fell 0.3% in April. The UK economy has not grown since January and there is a strong possibility that it will enter a recession.

The largest contributors to the decline in GDP were the manufacturing sector, down 1%, and construction, which fell 0.3%. Of particular concern is that net exports have subtracted 4.1% from UK GDP in the first quarter of this year.

Expectations of a recession are often disinflationary and prompt central banks to cut rates, but the current economic environment is unusual. Given the continuing surge in prices – particularly in fuel and energy – it is unlikely that the Bank of England will be able to reduce interest rates in the near future.

ECB signals rate rises

The European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a more hawkish tone at its June policy meeting. We are likely to see a 0.25% interest rate rise in July, followed by a 0.50% increase in September, unless there is a marked improvement in the euro zone inflation outlook over the coming months. Looking beyond September, the ECB is committed to ‘sustained’ rate rises, albeit at a ‘gradual’ pace.

Whilst euro zone inflation is high, hitting 8.1% year-on-year in May, Europe is not experiencing the same labour market tightness and associated wage inflation as the US and UK. This could change, however, and the euro zone’s dependence on Russian gas leaves it particularly exposed to further inflationary shocks due to the war.

Market review

 It was another negative week for global markets. Continued price increase momentum, combined the prospect of further increases in gasoline prices, spooked markets and sparked declines across the board. Investors are concerned that the need to tame inflation will force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively than expected.

Growth stocks were particularly badly hit, but equity market declines were broad-based, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the MSCI All Countries World Index finishing the week down over 10% and 8.3% respectively.

Bondholders also suffered, with the two-year US Treasury yield rising above 3% for the first time in 14 years as investors digested the reality of persistently high inflation, aggressive rate rises and lower growth expectations.

One of the few areas of markets to show positive returns was oil, where rising prices pushed the Brent Crude benchmark up 2.3%.


Important information

All details in this article are provided for information purposes only and should not be misinterpreted as investment advice or taxation advice.

Where the data in this article comes partially from third party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third party data.

© 2022 Sarasin & Partners LLP – all rights reserved. This article can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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