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China

  • Chinese industrial production came in below expectations +5.4% year on year in November (consensus: +5.9%, October: +5.9%). Crude oil, automobile, steel and electricity sectors decelerated in November. Retail sales were also below consensus, +8.1% year on year in November (+8.6% in October), despite a strong Singles Day earlier in the month generating sales in excess of $31 billion. Weaker auto sales and lower consumer inflation detracted from sales growth over the month.

Japan

  • Japanese Q3 GDP was revised lower to -2.5% quarter on quarter (-1.2% previous estimate, consensus: -2.0%). Negative growth in Q3 reflected declines from peaks in Q2, exacerbated by the severe floods during the quarter. The private sector capex component declined sharply over the quarter, with multiple sectors including wholesalers, retailers and information communications reducing spending. Capital spending has been strong in Japan since late 2016, underpinned by automation spending and labour-saving technology, providing some support for growth and inflation.

Eurozone

  • Eurozone industrial production was also weak, increasing +0.2% month on month (consensus: +0.1%). Production was relatively strong in Spain and France (+1.2% each), but was weak in Italy (-0.1%) and Germany (-0.6%). Energy production fell over the month (-1.7%) while capital goods production increased modestly. The majority of the weakness can be attributed to the disruptions in car production (-10.5% in Q3), although few other sectors have offered notable growth in recent months. Flash PMI dropped further in December to 51.4 for manufacturing (53.1 in November) and 51.4 for services (53.4 in November). The individual PMI readings for Italy and France have dropped into contractionary (sub-50) level.
  • The European Central Bank Governing Council left its policy rates unchanged at their meeting this week, confirming that the asset purchase programme will end this month. The staff macro-economic projections gave a small downward revision to GDP growth in both 2018 (-0.1pp to +1.9%) and 2019 (-0.1pp to +1.7%). Inflation was also revised down -0.1% to +1.6% in 2019.

UK

  • UK GDP was roughly flat over the month in October (+0.1% month on month). Industrial production fell -0.6% month on month in October (consensus: +0.1%), led by manufacturing which fell -0.9%. The trade deficit widened further over the month, imports +2.2% and exports -0.1% over the month, with exports to the EU extending their recent weakening trend.

Rest of World

  • Global equities generally declined, although in Europe they were modestly higher versus notable declines in Asia and North America. Core government bond yields were little changed, whilst the US dollar registered further broad-based gains.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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Who can use this site

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If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

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