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In conversation with Ben McEwen

As companies attempt their transition to a net-zero world, we sat down with Ben McEwen, Climate Analyst at Sarasin & Partners, to understand more about what the high-carbon transition means for investors and how we assess the credibility of companies’ climate claims.

 

What we are looking for in our high-carbon transition sub-theme is to protect our clients’ capital and generate durable returns over the medium to long term.

Companies that aren’t addressing significant transition risks, principally adaptation to climate change or mitigation of emissions, will be less likely to sustain their returns over the medium to long term.

We often hear it’s essential for all sectors of the economy to decarbonise rapidly, but why is high-carbon transition so important?

We’re all increasingly cognisant of the rates of warming that we’re seeing globally. As of last year, the world has experienced 1.1°C of global warming relative to the pre-Industrial Age. On land masses, that’s actually about 1.6°C of warming, already above the Paris Agreement, which called for well below two degrees of warming, with a target of 1.5°C.

Current policies take us towards 3°C of warming by the end of the century. That will have profound socio-economic consequences, due to rises in sea levels, loss of biodiversity and more frequent extreme weather events. In the US, for example, climate and weather-induced damages were in the order of $165 billion in 2022. For context: the annual average was approximately $30 billion in the 1990s, increasing to about $58 billion in the 2000s. In short, we already see a significant increase in climate-induced damage.

Analysis from bodies such as the Network for Greening the Financial System2 shows that scenarios with the worst macroeconomic damage are those in which we have unabated climate change. It’s clearly in all stakeholders’ interests to abate emissions as quickly as possible.

Some indispensable industries – such as steel, chemicals and cement – will struggle to transition. What is the incentive for companies to change?

There are really two forces that drive change: regulation and increasingly attractive economic incentives for change. On the one hand, regulatory and legislative incentives drive companies to decarbonise. This already has an effect in Europe, where the price of carbon recently reached €100 per tonne for the first time in history.

Coupled with this, are the economics of transition. The cost of offshore wind energy fell by approximately 60% between 2010 and 2021. Over the same period, the cost of solar energy has fallen by 83% and the cost of producing electric batteries is down 89%.3 This means companies have an increasingly compelling economic rationale to expedite the change to net zero. However, we do have to bear in mind the significant differences between industries in terms of their ability to change – and nuances within specific industries.

Given these differences, how do you go about finding companies that are likely to perform well over the coming years as we transition to net zero?

We can’t expect industries to decarbonise at a linear pace that will take us all to net zero. The steel industry will decarbonise at a different pace to the cement industry, and the chemical industry will have its own path to follow. We also have to consider the individual firms within those sectors, as well as the core competencies and attributes that could enable them to make the transition.

Essentially, what we’re looking for in our high-carbon transition sub-theme – as we do in all of our themes – is to protect our clients’ capital and generate durable returns over the medium to long term. Companies that aren’t addressing significant transition risks, principally adaptation to climate change or mitigation of emissions, will be less likely to sustain their returns over the medium to long term. We have to consider whether our clients’ capital would be put at risk by investing in those companies.

How does Sarasin assess the credibility of a company’s transition targets?

We draw on a variety of sources, including our own Sustainability Impact Matrix (the SIM), in an attempt to standardise the type of information we seek from every company. The SIM presents over 160 questions on a range of environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics to help us pin down where a company might be vulnerable to ESG- related risks. We also use some external data providers to help us think about companies’ physical risks and the viability of their transition pathways.

Importantly, we bring internal and external ESG and transition metrics together with our fundamental analysis. A company might score highly in terms of its alignment with climate targets but still, in our fundamental analysis, be unattractive in terms of its ability to generate cashflows.

Do you hold any companies in hard-to- abate industries in the portfolios?

Two interesting examples are Rio Tinto and Air Liquide. Rio is one of the largest mining companies in the world and it faces interesting challenges and opportunities in its decarbonisation journey. It has significant exposure to copper and lithium – both of which will be in high demand during and after the energy transition. By some estimates, production of global lithium will need to increase about 42-fold over the next 30 years to keep pace with battery demand, while copper is crucial in electrification and building smarter power grids.

It faces a great set of opportunities, but it also has significant exposure to iron ore, which has high scope 3 emissions. These are outside of Rio’s control, as they are caused by activities elsewhere in the value chain. The question is: How does Rio go about capitalising on higher demand for copper and lithium, whilst also decarbonising its business and reducing reliance on cash flows from iron ore, for which there is likely to be lower demand over time?

Another interesting company in terms of the high-carbon transition is Air Liquide, a global leader in industrial gases. Today it has a high emissions footprint due to the energy intensity of its products, but it also has two interesting energy transition opportunities. The first is carbon capture storage, which has some controversial aspects, but will be needed in some form. The second is hydrogen production. Hydrogen’s multipurpose potential has been much-hyped, but the industrial sector will increasingly need hydrogen. Air Liquide is a global leader in producing hydrogen and has good potential to generate enduring cash flows from that value chain.

Does this process lead to avoiding companies in hard-to-abate sectors?

We don’t rule out any specific industries. We aim to protect capital by looking at the world in terms of the themes that are shaping society. Given these forces, we seek to identify companies that are most likely to benefit as a result.

There are companies in hard-to-abate sectors that won’t protect our clients’ capital. But these may also be companies that we can engage with and apply very specific targets for change. Shifting those companies towards a more responsible path can lead to capital protection and more durable cash flows.

So yes, we can and will invest in high-carbon companies – if they meet our ESG requirements or can be shifted towards a responsible path. It remains an investment decision. If our research shows that a company’s returns will be challenged, then we’ll look for better opportunities elsewhere.


Important information

If you are a private investor, you should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.

This document has been approved by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul’s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England & Wales with registered number OC329859 which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.

It has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the document is based has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verified such information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.

Please note that the prices of shares and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This can be as a result of market movements and also of variations in the exchange rates between currencies. Past performance is not a guide to future returns and may not be repeated.

Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect of any such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct. indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.

Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of his or her own judgment. Sarasin & Partners LLP and/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document. If you are a private investor you should not rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser. © 2023 Sarasin & Partners LLP – all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact [email protected].

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

professional investors;

our product distributor partners; or

regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

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