More than 70 countries will hold nationwide elections in 2024.
Most ballots will be cast in Asia and many elections will likely result in the entrenchment of populist leaders.[1] For investors, the most impactful will be the 2024 presidential election in the US, where a second Trump presidency is now a real possibility. This has implications for portfolio holdings if US tariffs are increased, climate commitments reversed or US foreign aid withdrawn.
We will be keeping a watchful eye on stateside political developments, which will likely include increased market volatility as we head towards November 2024. Below we have set out some key risk events, as well as their potential investment impact.
Our methodology
Geopolitical Pulse is based on a risk-monitoring approach developed by Sarasin & Partners. We have found it to be a useful tool when thinking about multi-faceted and variable risks that affect our tactical portfolio positioning.
Our risk analysis of global political developments is updated quarterly, and used to inform the asset allocation decisions taken at our Investment Policy Committee meetings.
The qualitative method is simple but practical, with each risk – assessed in terms of its potential impact – is assigned a score (1-5), a probability (1-5) and a total risk score (1-25 = risk x probability).
[1] The Economist: 2024 is the biggest election year in history, 13 November 2023
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