As the Trump White House is discovering, Iran presents a very different challenge from past interventions in Venezuela or Syria.
Despite the President’s claim that the war is “very close to over”, talks aimed at securing a peace deal have yet to bear fruit.
Against this backdrop, the ceasefire remains fragile, but for now it is holding. Communications between the two sides are reportedly still ongoing.
Even so, markets have been remarkably well behaved, given the scale of the energy shock and the military response. Global equities have recovered and are now up for the year, volatility has fallen below its 20-year average, and the dollar is broadly flat. Extraordinarily, global earnings estimates have actually risen since the conflict began at the end of February.
Guy Monson assesses the situation and asks whether this calm across financial markets can last.
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