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Weak trade data out of Asia

  • Japanese production declined more than expected in August – industrial production fell -1.2% over the month (June: -3.3%, consensus: -0.4%) and shipments decreased -1.4%. Construction, producer goods and durable consumer goods all declined.
  • South Korean exports were weaker than consensus in September, falling -11.7% year-on-year (YoY), with semiconductors the biggest detractor, only slightly offset by the slowing decline in steel exports, which saw a pickup in demand from ASEAN economies and Japan over the month.
  • The World Trade Organisation has revised down their forecasts for global trade, citing escalating trade tensions. World trade volume growth is now projected to be just 1.2% for the year – less than half of the 2.6% growth forecasted as recently as April of this year.

Business surveys consistent with 'mid-cycle slowdown'

  • The US manufacturing ISM survey recorded a 10-year low reading of 47.8 (August: 49.1). Employment fell to 46.3, its lowest reading in over 2 years, and production and new export orders also declined over the month.
  • The US non-manufacturing ISM also disappointed in September, down 3.8 points to 52.6, mostly driven by activity and new orders components. Services employment was down -2.7 points, leaving the component reading at the lowest level seen since early 2014 and indicating some spillover from the weakness in the industrial sector.
  • On the other hand, Emerging Asia saw a slight pickup in PMI data – Taiwan produced a survey reading above contraction for the first time in 11 months (September: 50.0, August: 47.9), whilst the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 (August: 50.4).
  • The composite JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up moderately for the second month running in September to 49.7. The sub-indices followed a similar trend to previous data – investment goods and new order intakes deteriorated as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on spending plans, whilst consumer goods fared better. Although still below the 50 mark signalling contraction, this represented the highest monthly reading since May this year.
  • September US non-farm payrolls were 9k behind expectations at 136k, but on the other hand, the previous two months’ readings were revised up a combined 45k. Unemployment fell to a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Recession fears are rising and a sea of red for equities

  • Equities began last week firmly on the back foot, rattled by signs that the US economy was becoming infected by the same malaise as other major economic regions. However, by the end of the week the mood had improved somewhat, helped in part by the reassuring US job report.
  • US bond yields were still down 15-20bp on the week, with shorter-dated bonds outperforming as the market now anticipates another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting is more likely than not.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue to US persons by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

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It is not for distribution to non-US persons and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

professional investors;

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

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