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Survey-based data improved

  • The eurozone composite PMI increased to 47.5 in June (May:31.9, April: 13.6), marking a sharp recovery from earlier in the year but still indicating moderate contraction. The services sector drove the majority of the increase, +16.8 points to 47.3 over the month, whilst manufacturing rose +7.5 points to 46.9. Among the largest economies, the French composite is signalling expansion for the first time since February (June: 51.3, April: 32.1) with both services and manufacturing above 50 (50.3 and 52.1 respectively)
  • The German composite improved markedly over the month (+13.5 points to 45.8); manufacturing and export orders saw a sharp increase over the month but the labour market remains very weak indicated by the employment balance at just 38.6 (+2.2 over the month). Across the eurozone, manufacturing new orders and exports saw the sharpest recoveries and there was some improvement in services new business, although business expectations in the services industry remain very low below Jan/Feb levels. Across Europe, these early readings suggest a V-shaped recovery is still possible, although data in the coming months will confirm the sustainability of the current expansion
  • UK PMIs also saw a marked improvement over the month, with the composite reading 47.6 (May: 30.0). Services increased from 29.0 in May to 47.0 (consensus: 40.0) and manufacturing increased from 40.7 to 50.1 (consensus: 45.0). Among the sub-indices, services business expectations and manufacturing export orders were particularly strong, whilst employment indices remain particularly weak (just above 40 in manufacturing and just below 40 for services). Whilst the recovery in expectations was welcome, we should be cautious given, 1) GDP continues to fall (-20.4% in April), 2) employment PMIs remain weak and 3) businesses are yet to prove their resilience as government support is tapered later this year (e.g. Job Retention Scheme)
  • US flash PMIs improved in line with expectations in June. The manufacturing PMI increased from 39.8 to 49.6 over the month and services increased from 37.5 to 46.7. As many businesses reopened on a larger scale throughout the month, new orders fell at a slower pace and job-losses eased in June as manufacturers begin to address the backlog of orders. In the services sector, new orders fell at a slower pace and price indicators showed increases over the month
  • The German IFO business climate index saw a record monthly increase in June from 79.7 to 86.2 (consensus: 85.0). The increase was led by expectations indicators (+10.9 points) whilst the current conditions assessments saw a smaller improvement (+2.4 points to 81.3). The worst-hit sectors earlier in the year saw the largest recoveries over the month – services +15.0 to -6.0 and trade +16.3 to -14.2 (combined c.60% of reading), but manufacturing and construction also improved +13.1 and +4.8 points respectively over the month

But markets jittery on second wave concerns

  • Economies continue to monitor signs of a second wave of COVID-19 as some reopened regions are seeing a spike in the number of cases. In the US, Texas State Governor Greg Abbott has been forced to halt re-opening after they recorded 5,996 new cases and 47 new deaths on Thursday, the highest daily death toll in a month. Whilst cases in the South have spiked in those States that reopened earliest, the initial hot-spots of the virus such as New York and other north-eastern states have seen a decline in daily coronavirus cases. In order to control the virus, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut governors said that they would ask people travelling from the eight states – Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Caroline, Texas and Utah – to go into self-isolation for 14 days upon entry
  • The MSCI ACWI global equity index was down over 2% and the S&P 500 almost 3% over the week. 10-year UK gilts yields fell to as low as 0.14%, the lowest since the height of the market panic in March

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue to US persons by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for US persons who are:

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our product distributor partners; or

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It is not for distribution to non-US persons and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

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It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

professional investors;

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

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