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European Central Bank indicates that a raft of fresh easing measures will be announced in September...

  • President Draghi paved the way this week for a fresh monetary stimulus package to boost the faltering eurozone economy and allay fears that the Bank would materially undershoot its inflation target (“below but close to” 2%) in the coming months. The ECB indicated that they would look into a range of stimulus options, including interest rate cuts and another quantitative easing package, leaving investors expecting a package of several measures (as well as a rate cut) in September. Draghi will be replaced by current head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, after the October ECB meeting this year, with policy continuity expected to prevail after the change of leadership.
  • Expectations are for a rate cut from the Bank of England later this year are also rising, from ~25% just one month ago to over 60% today. The frontrunner for Carney’s successor as Bank of England Governor, Gerard Lyons, is a proponent of “modern monetary theory”, which would involve combining easier monetary policy with an expanding fiscal deficit in order to fuel the economy.

…as the short-term economic outlook continues to sour (in contrast to the US)

  • Euro area area PMIs disappointed overall in July, with the manufacturing composite reading 46.4 (consensus: 47.7) and the services composite reading 53.3 (consensus 53.3).
  • Germany and France were two of the weaker readings – the composites read 51.4 (consensus: 52.4) and 51.7 (consensus: 52.5) respectively. The German manufacturing reading hit a seven-year low over the month, while French manufacturing stalled after what was a promising June number.
  • This was consistent with the slightly weaker business confidence survey results from France this week, which showed the industrial sector indicator falling from 102 to 101 overall, with a notable deterioration in the outlook for global order books.
  • The US June durable goods report showed steady core capex momentum, with notably larger than expected increases in core orders and shipments.
  • The first estimate of US Q1 GDP was 2.1% (q/q, annualised), down from 3.1% in Q1 but ahead of consensus expectation of 1.8%. A strong rebound in household consumption and government expenditure drove the number, whilst private investment, inventories and net exports were a drag.
  • With the firmer recent tone to US data, the broad consensus is now that the Fed will only cut rates by 25bp at the end-of-July meeting, rather 50bp.

Equities modestly higher, dollar strengthens, bonds yo-yo

  • The S&P 500 made fresh highs midweek before falling back somewhat into the weekend. European equities were generally higher, whilst Asia was mixed.
  • The dollar rallied, particularly versus emerging market currencies, as Fed rate cut expectations were pared back.
  • Government bonds oscillated wildly around the ECB meeting; overall US yields were higher and eurozone yields lower.
  • UK gilts continue to rally and the curve is now inverted (yielding less than Bank Rate) out to 2028.

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than the UK. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue to US persons by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

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It is not for distribution to non-US persons and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

professional investors;

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

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