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China activity slows but at a “managed” pace supported by credit easing measures and Phase On trade deal

  • Total Social Financing (TSF), a measure used as an indication of credit and liquidity in the Chinese economy, rose to CNY251.3 trillion in December. This represented a 10.7% increase over the year (CNY2.1 trillion) and was above analyst expectations. The measure was adjusted to include central government and local government bonds, but the underlying data represents a stabilisation in credit growth in recent months, supportive of a pickup in growth momentum.
  • GDP in China stabilised at 6.0% in Q4, in line with expectations, leaving 2019 GBP growth +6.1%. Industrials production beat to the upside (+6.9% YoY, November: +6.2% YoY), as did fixed asset investment (+5.4% YoY, November: +5.2%), a sign that capital expenditure may be picking up. Retail sales were flat in December, +8% over the year, not helped by weaker income growth and a sluggish job market. There were some disappointments in the data – consumption growth remained subdued and manufacturing investment fell -3.1%, although net exports increased. Individual GDP components will be closely watched in the coming months as economists determine the long-term impact of recent tariffs implemented by Washington.
  • After months of negotiations, a “Phase One” deal between the US and China was signed on Wednesday. President Trump is predictably posing the agreement as a win for his administration, calling it “one of the greatest trade deals ever made”. The agreement covers intellectual property protection for US companies, loosening barriers for food and agriculture trade, and opening the financial services industry, among other items. Cybersecurity from Chinese companies and US technology investments are expected to be negotiated in the next phases of negotiation.

Poor UK data strengthen likelihood of a rate cut at Bank of England’s month-end meeting

  • Despite reasonably strong real wage growth, UK retail sales (ex auto fuel) fell 0.8% MoM in December versus expectation for a 0.8% gain. This followed poor November industrial production data released earlier in the week. Should next week’s PMI surveys fail to rebound, it will likely seal the argument for a rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on 30 January.
  • Market-implied probability of a rate cut this month leaped to ~70% by the end of the week from ~25% at the end of the previous week given the poor data after a slew of dovish MPC member comments.

Equities continue to surge

  • The “liquidity-driven market” continued unabated, with equities rallying and phenomenal demand in the primary fixed income markets over the week (the new 10-year Spanish government issue drew €53bn of demand – the largest order book in euro primary market history).

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This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than US persons. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

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The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

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What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

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