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When a small clutch of stocks warrants a name, it implies shared characteristics. In the case of the Magnificent 7[1], they are all tech stocks that produced outstanding returns in 2023. But this is by no means the whole story.

In fact, only two of the Magnificent 7 were in the MSCI World’s top 30 performers in 2023[2]. First place went to Coinbase, a crypto exchange, while Rolls-Royce romped in 5th with a 240% return.

The Magnificent 7’s key similarities are actually: they are tech stocks, they performed well and they are extremely large. What is most striking is that such huge companies saw big stock price increases, not the stock price increases alone.

Market performance is generally calculated on a market capitalisation weighted basis, so large market capitalisation stocks tend to count a lot more than smaller ones. This magnifies the importance of stock price returns of large tech stocks.

Tesla, for example, has almost 100x the market capitalisation of Rolls-Royce, so Rolls-Royce’s stock would have to do 100x as well as Tesla’s to have the same influence on the market capitalisation weighted market return.

Aren’t tech stocks a bit expensive?

Turning to valuation, we might expect tech stocks to be extremely expensive at the moment. Granted, they are certainly not bargain-basement stocks, but two interesting points give pause for thought.

Firstly, they are not eye-wateringly expensive. Excluding Tesla, the Magnificent 7 have price/earnings (P/E) ratios in the 20-30 range. Secondly, they are only moderately more expensive than they were 10 years ago (cheaper in Amazon’s case), as is the market as a whole.

This implies that stocks have been driven higher by earnings growth. It also implies that the market’s confidence in the growth of large-cap tech earnings is little different to 10 years ago. Given these stocks’ history this might appear surprising.

It is clear in hindsight that the accumulation of economic value by large-cap tech stocks has far exceeded what was expected 10 years ago. Had the market fully grasped tech’s potential, then the multiple-based valuations should have been much higher. It could therefore be considered that the intrinsic value of large-cap tech stocks 10 years ago was actually much higher than the market believed at the time.

Is the market still underestimating tech’s intrinsic value? For some stocks, we think so. Their dominance in what are often natural monopoly markets (where they are protected by high barriers to entry) means they are likely to continue to grow their earnings at a rapid pace.

In an increasingly connected world, larger companies that offer connection-related products and services, such as cloud-based computing or ubiquitous customer access, will tend be in an advantageous position.

Monopolies – it’s not all bad

On the face of it, monopolies are generally a bad thing for investment returns. They tend to defend the status quo, stunt innovation, accumulate costs and increase prices. In large-cap tech, however, monopolistic dominance has helped produce multiple quality products, in many cases at low cost to end consumers – such as free internet searching.

One might argue that these products were developed primarily when the large tech companies were rather less large, and that there is little reason to believe that ‘this time is different’. But since many of these companies can be considered natural monopolies, their capability to capture economic value is likely to remain strong.

If we compare individual stock performance to simple average stock performance, we find no significant change across the last 10-15 years. Each year, somewhere in the region of 45% of stocks return more than the average. While one might expect the centralisation of economic power to lead to concentration of earnings growth and hence stock returns, that hasn’t happened.

Is small cap cheap?

P/E valuations suggest that larger stocks are expensive relative to their history, while smaller stocks look substantially cheaper relative to theirs. We know that large cap has been outperforming small cap, so this isn’t a surprise. But could it also reflect a recognition that larger companies, particularly tech companies, are seeing increasing returns to scale and that smaller companies find competition increasingly tough?

The objective of an active investor is to achieve investment returns that are superior to the risk taken (however defined). If we assume that stock prices reflect the average insight of investors, then to be successful an investor needs to identify stocks where they have superior insight to the average. That is to say, invest in companies whose stock prices incorrectly reflect the likely economic value of their future activities.

If we compare the market cap weighted MSCI ACWI index P/E to the equally weighted index P/E, we find the market cap weighted P/E is 17.6x and the equally weighted P/E is 13.9x. This suggests that larger stocks are more expensive, but does that accurately reflect the future economic value creation or ‘capture’ of these companies? Does it underestimate the value capture, as the market clearly did in the past?

Today, large tech companies appear expensive relative to their historic average, but no more so than previously. Meanwhile, the outlook for value creation by them appears undiminished, and perhaps even stronger. Significant underexposure to these companies seems inappropriate, and concluding that large-cap tech stocks are ‘about to turn’ is probably unwise.

Will the rest of the market catch up?

Historically, there has been a roughly 7% rise in equity markets between the last Fed interest rate hike and the first rate cut. Some assessments suggest that recent rises in equity markets reflect ‘pricing in’ of anticipated interest rate cuts.

The MSCI World is already up 12% since the last rate hike and developed equity markets have risen by approximately 8% year-to-date. Meanwhile, earnings estimates have risen by a little over 3% year to date, meaning that the market has become more expensive.

However, around 25% of the total increase in market cap so far this year has come from the Magnificent 7 (despite a 30% fall in Tesla’s stock price). By contrast, non-Magnificent 7 stocks have risen by roughly 6%. Valuations have increased, but not dramatically. We should avoid jumping to the conclusion that the market is now expensive.

But will the non-Magnificent 7 stocks catch-up? Asking this question implies that these stocks are a homogeneous group, which is true, up to a point. That point is the economic sensitivity of their earnings compared to the expected economic sensitivity of their earnings and the economic outlook compared to the expected economic outlook.

Most market participants appear to expect a benign economic environment in 2024, with moderating inflation, falling interest rates, improving economic activity and only moderate impact from the rate hikes of 2023. These are not the conditions for a ‘catch-up’ scenario. That would require a much more positive economic outlook and/or corporate earnings that are more positively geared to the economy than in the past – neither of which seem likely.

For the avoidance of doubt-avoidance

In his 1995 Harvard speech, The Psychology of Human Misjudgement, Charlie Munger cited 24 sources of misjudgement, the fourth of which is “doubt-avoidance tendency”. This is the very human desire to eliminate doubt or uncertainty, often by reaching strong judgements quickly or adopting ‘belief’ positions.

Unfortunately, investment is inherently uncertain, making unwary investors highly prone to doubt avoidance. And the current situation is uncertain: large-cap tech companies are driving the market higher, but they are also increasing earnings significantly – so perhaps it is justified. The Magnificent 7 stocks appear expensive, but they are not dramatically more expensive now than they were in the past. And in the past they were good value.

Doubt avoidance encourages us to make a quick judgement on the outcome of the Magnificent 7 relative to the market. But deeper research suggests that this is inappropriate. The Magnificent 7 share a name, but they are different businesses that require individual analysis and investment decisions.

Two earn their crust from advertising, one from car manufacture, one from device manufacture, one from semiconductors and three from cloud-based services (while also having significant non-cloud businesses). Their year-to-date performance reflects their differences, with Tesla down 30%, Nvidia up 90% and Meta up 40%.

Our approach is to embrace doubt and uncertainty, but mitigate investment performance risk as necessary. This may mean, among other things, reducing large-cap tech exposure or being highly selective. One thing we will not do is rush to judgement or cleave to unexamined investment beliefs in our search for higher-quality companies trading prices below their intrinsic value.

[1] Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla

[2] All data in this article sourced from Bloomberg, Macrobond and MSCI as at 26/03/2024

 


Important Information

This document is intended for retail investors. You should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.

This document has been issued by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul’s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC329859, and which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.

This document has been prepared for marketing and information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the material is based has been obtained in good faith, from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.

This document should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.

The value of investments and any income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. If investing in foreign currencies, the return in the investor’s reference currency may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and may not be repeated. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the J. Safra Sarasin Holding Ltd group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of their own judgement. Sarasin & Partners LLP and/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document.

Where the data in this document comes partially from third-party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third-party data.

© 2024 Sarasin & Partners LLP – all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact [email protected].

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The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

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This website and the information contained within is for South African residents only and not for distribution outside the South Africa. If you are not a South African resident, you must leave this site immediately and accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed

It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa. The information on this website is provided on the condition that it will not form the basis for any investment decision by the recipient or clients that the recipient may be representing or acting for.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

It is important that you read this information before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the use of this website.

By clicking the ‘Accept’ button you acknowledge that the information below has been brought to your attention.

The contents of this website have been approved for issue in South Africa by Sarasin & Partners LLP (‘Sarasin’), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Under no circumstances should this information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

Who can use this site

This information on this website is only for South Africa residents who are:

professional investors;

our product distributor partners; or

regulated professional intermediaries.

It is not for distribution outside South Africa and should not be relied upon by retail investors.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you must leave this site immediately and you accept Sarasin will not be liable in any way whatsoever for your use of this website or the information contained within if you choose to proceed.

What you should know about the site’s content

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business in any jurisdiction other than South Africa.

The information on this website has been obtained from sources that Sarasin believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy is given. We are not responsible for the accuracy of information contained within sites provided by third parties, which may have links to or from our pages. Any opinions expressed are our judgement at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. By proceeding you agree to the exclusion by Sarasin of any liability in respect of any errors or omissions by Sarasin and any other relevant third parties.

The information on this website does not in any way constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation that a product or investment is suitable for you or your circumstances. If you are unsure as to whether the investments described in this site are suitable for you should seek professional advice from a professional adviser.

Cookies and other policies

This website uses cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that we put on your electronic device which is essential for the website to function properly and which help to provide you with a better online experience. These cookies cannot be switched off and do not store any of your information. We also use non-essential cookies which you can consent to or reject via the cookie consent tool on our website. By continuing to access this website, you agree to these warnings and important information.

Please make sure you have also read our Legal Information, Important Information and Privacy Policies which apply to your use of this website. To access these, please click on the links at the footer of the home page.

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