2026 has begun with turbulence, particularly in the US, where tariff policy is in disarray after the Supreme Court struck down much of President Trump’s legal justification. As alternatives are rushed through, the likely result is lower revenues, policy confusion and rising uncertainty.
Meanwhile, US naval forces are moving toward the Gulf, heightening the risk of conflict with Iran – a sign of growing global fragmentation and intensifying great power rivalry, gradually replacing the post-war rules-based order.
Alongside these tensions, capital deployment remains extraordinary. The five largest AI hyperscalers are expected to spend $650bn on data centres in 2026 alone – nearly two-thirds of the US military budget.
Guy Monson examines what this mix of geopolitical strain and heavy investment means for global growth and your portfolio in 2026.
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