{"id":9947,"date":"2025-01-14T15:54:42","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T15:54:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/think\/talking-tariffs-the-history-of-global-trade\/"},"modified":"2025-01-24T14:20:21","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T14:20:21","slug":"talking-tariffs-the-history-of-global-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/think\/talking-tariffs-the-history-of-global-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Talking tariffs – the history of global trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trade has always been more than just a matter of swapping goods \u2013 it\u2019s a battleground for competing ideas about wealth, power, and national strategy. From the hoarding instincts of mercantilism to Adam Smith\u2019s invisible hand; and from David Ricardo\u2019s elegant theory of comparative advantage to Alexander Hamilton\u2019s industrial patriotism; trade theory has evolved alongside the fortunes of nations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today, as the Trump administration boldly embraces tariffs, the post-war consensus on free trade as a source of prosperity is rapidly unravelling. Before we explore the investment implications of this paradigm shift, let\u2019s quickly take a journey through time.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mercantilism (16th to 18th centuries): The zero-sum mindset<\/h3>\n

For roughly 250 years following the rise of modern nation-states in the 1500s, wealth was measured not by productivity or innovation but by the accumulation of gold and silver. During this mercantilist era, trade was a ruthless, zero-sum competition. If one country grew richer, another must be getting poorer \u2013 or so the thinking went.<\/p>\n

To stay on top, nations imposed heavy tariffs to curb imports and lavished subsidies on exports. Empires raced to secure exclusive access to resources and markets, with the state holding power to grant monopolies to trading giants like the British East India Company. For private capital, opportunities were narrow, often confined to risky ventures tied to political favouritism or military conquest.<\/p>\n

Adam Smith (1723-1790): Win-win trade<\/h3>\n

Adam Smith flipped the zero-sum game of mercantilism on its head, arguing that trade isn\u2019t necessarily about one nation\u2019s gain at another\u2019s expense. Instead, trade can be a win-win, where nations can create mutual prosperity by focusing on what they do best.<\/p>\n

At the heart of Smith\u2019s revolutionary thinking was the concept of absolute advantage. In his magnum opus, The Wealth of Nations <\/em>(published in 1776), he urged nations to specialise in producing goods they could make most efficiently and trade for the rest. He laid the groundwork for modern capitalism and the global trade networks we rely on today. Although as we will find out, like all forms of competition, free trade is not a painless panacea; neither the costs of creative destruction nor the benefits of positive-sum trade were evenly shared.<\/p>\n

[infogram id=\"1pk29mgdnyn2rds9yz073v597kh3rnj0kyp?live\"]<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

David Ricardo (1772-1823): Playing to your comparative strengths<\/h3>\n

Building on Smith\u2019s ideas, David Ricardo, another British economist introduced his concept of comparative advantage in 1817. Ricardo\u2019s insight was deceptively simple but profoundly impactful: even if one nation is better at producing everything, it still makes sense to specialise in what it can produce at the lowest cost and trade for the rest.<\/p>\n

Ricardo opened the floodgates for cross-border investments. Investors sought opportunities in industries that aligned with national strengths, such as Britain\u2019s world-leading textiles and America\u2019s agricultural exports in the 19th century.<\/p>\n

Alexander Hamilton (1750s-1804): The protector of infant industries<\/h3>\n

Across the ocean, in the US, as a founding member of a new nation, Alexander Hamilton saw things differently. In 1791, he made a bold case for tariffs and subsidies to shield emerging domestic industries from foreign competition. While they came before Ricardo\u2019s insights outlined above, Hamilton\u2019s ideas took root to become highly influential throughout subsequent decades.<\/p>\n

Hamilton\u2019s view was that young industries learn by doing and need support to grow strong enough to compete on the global stage \u2013 a strategy now famously known as the 'infant industry' argument. His vision became the cornerstone of US trade policy throughout the 19th century, inspiring nations like Japan and South Korea to use similar protectionist measures in the 20th century.<\/p>\n

However, this approach comes with strings attached \u2013 protected markets are inherently inefficient, and prone to corruption and rent-seeking. In many cases it is still debatable if protectionism contributed to economic success, or whether the economic success happened despite that protectionism. Successfully producing and exporting goods is not a guarantee that this activity was economically worthwhile \u2013 as the experience of long-suffering shareholders in many Chinese export-oriented companies (or their international competitors) will tell you today.<\/p>\n

Make America great again<\/h3>\n

The first Trump administration (2017-2021) shattered decades of free-trade orthodoxy, advocating trade barriers under the banner of 'America First.' President Trump thinks the US trade deficit is evidence of losing a 'trade war,' particularly against China\u2019s surplus. However, this view oversimplifies economic realities.<\/p>\n

The US trade deficit is a sign US companies can\u2019t keep up with demand, including from the US government. Fix the government Budget deficit and the trade deficit will likely fix itself. In China, the trade surplus is a sign Chinese companies can\u2019t find buyers at home. Moreover, the US pays China for its imports not in gold, but in dollars, which of course are ultimately recycled back to the US and end up funding both government and consumer borrowing.<\/p>\n

Yet Trump\u2019s policies resonated with voters, reflecting deeper discontent. Ricardo\u2019s free-trade model assumes that cheap imports \u2013 whether due to Chinese corporate subsidies or comparative advantage \u2013 are universally beneficial, but this ignores crucial factors. These are: the strategic importance of certain domestic industries, the social value of work for those in affected industries, and the uneven distribution of trade\u2019s gains and losses. Yes, there might be better ways than tariffs to make everyone feel like a winner from trade, but one way or another, tighter trade policy is coming.<\/p>\n

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