{"id":9829,"date":"2024-11-13T09:04:36","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T09:04:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/?p=9829"},"modified":"2024-11-13T13:49:42","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T13:49:42","slug":"donald-trumps-decisive-win-heralds-a-regime-shift-for-the-us-and-the-global-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/think\/donald-trumps-decisive-win-heralds-a-regime-shift-for-the-us-and-the-global-order\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump\u2019s decisive win heralds a regime shift for the US and the global order"},"content":{"rendered":"

Having had time to follow the results and market reaction to the last week\u2019s US presidential election, we take a closer look at Donald Trump\u2019s key policies around lower taxes, higher tariffs, deregulation, and tighter borders, and assess what this could all mean for investors on a global scale.<\/em><\/p>\n

On 5 November, Donald Trump decisively won not only the Electoral College vote but also the popular vote to become the 47th<\/sup> president of the United States. The Republican Party has also taken control of the Senate with a comfortable majority and is projected to win the House of Representatives. President-elect Trump has delivered an impressive win and now has a resounding mandate to deliver on his election promises.<\/p>\n

So, what should we expect?<\/h2>\n

A second Trump presidency is likely to consolidate and build upon the key themes of the first presidency: lower taxes, higher tariffs, deregulation, and tighter immigration controls.<\/p>\n

Geopolitically, Trump has been clear about his ambitions; he will seek to leverage the market power of the US economy - as world\u2019s largest consumer market and technology leader - to extract concessions from all its trading partners.<\/p>\n

There are strong grounds to believe that President Trump will be more effective in his second term; within the Republican Party there is greater buy-in for his vision for the country and those not aligned with his agenda are no longer in Congress. The Presidential Transition team is also ensuring that candidates being vetted for Cabinet positions will sign up to the full Trump agenda.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a closer look at some of the proposed policies in more detail.<\/p>\n

Lower taxes<\/h2>\n

The centrepiece of Trump\u2019s domestic agenda is a lower tax burden on American households and businesses. Trump\u2019s first priority will be to extend individual tax cuts that were passed in the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA)[i]<\/a> that are set to expire at the end of next year.<\/p>\n

For businesses, he has promised to lower the corporate tax for domestic producers and to make permanent a 100% bonus depreciation for capital expenditure. The bonus depreciation would also apply to business expenditure on research and experimentation costs. These provisions are aimed at encouraging more domestic investment. For small partnerships, called pass-through entities, he will allow 20% of business income to be deducted from federal income taxes. There have been further tax cuts promised on income from tips, overtime and social security, but those are less likely to be included in any final budget legislation.<\/p>\n

Higher tariffs<\/h2>\n

The second key tenant of Trump\u2019s agenda is a reset of the US\u2019s trading relationship with its global partners. Trump has consistently argued that an unfair global trading system is responsible for the hollowing out the country\u2019s industrial base. He does not subscribe to the classical economics doctrine of mutually beneficial gains from trade. Instead, he views the ever-growing US trade deficit as evidence of unfair trading practices. He believes that the US economy, by virtue of being the dominant market within the global trading system, should extract greater concessions from its trading partners.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s vision of a fair-trading system is one in which the US reduces it trade deficit to run balanced trade with its trading partners. It is closer to the mercantile policies that prevailed over much of the 16th<\/sup> - 18th<\/sup> century than the post-war movement to dismantle trade barriers.<\/p>\n

Last week, Robert Lighthizer, the US Trade Representative under the first Trump presidency wrote in the Financial Times<\/em>: \u201cCountries that run consistently large surpluses are the protectionists in the global economy. Others, like the US, that run perennial huge trade deficits are the victims. They end up trading their assets and the future income from those assets for current consumption. The problem is not the US savings rate. It is the predatory industrial policies.\u201d[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Trump team believe that higher tariffs are a key tool to rebalance the trade deficit. They have proposed a tariff of 60% on imports from China to rebalance the bilateral trade deficit. Under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962[iii]<\/a>, the president has the authority to impose such tariffs if excessive foreign imports are found to threaten national security. Tariffs on imports from China could easily be justified under this Act.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Trump team are also proposing a 10% - 20% tariff or a reciprocal tariff on all other trading partners. The legal support to do so via Executive Action is less clear cut. The president will need to declare a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act\u00a0(IEEPA) of 1977[iv]<\/a>. Such a move is likely to be challenged in the courts and face intense lobbying by interest groups.<\/p>\n

On balance, we expect that Trump\u2019s universal tariffs will be narrowed to target key sectors (autos, steel) and countries (Mexico, China, Europe, and South Korea) and will accelerate the move away from laissez faire globalisation. How targeted countries respond also is highly uncertain \u2013 many countries may choose to hit back with tariffs on key US exports and we could face a tit-for-tat escalation or they could adapt to the new global reality of a more protectionist US and offset some of the tariff impact by depreciating their currencies.<\/p>\n

Deregulation<\/h2>\n

The third key pillar of the Trump agenda is an aggressive deregulatory thrust. He is likely to achieve this through a freeze on new regulations and a roll back of existing ones. The Trump team has proposed moving a substantial number of federal workers onto Schedule F on \u2018day one\u2019 of his administration. Such a move would remove their employment protections and allow the administration to slim down regulatory reach by removing capacity. Elon Musk is likely to be tasked with reducing government waste through a newly created \u2018Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE)\u2019 that has an ambitious goal of cutting Federal expenditure by $2trn.<\/p>\n

Trump believes that cheap energy is a durable competitive advantage for the US economy and would like to reduce the constraints on energy production along with tariffs to rebuild the nation\u2019s industrial base. To this effect, he has promised to cut the funding for the Environmental Protection Agency and unwind clean energy policies. He has committed to withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and rescind funding for climate initiatives in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).<\/p>\n

He has also promised to reduce the reach of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau and has signalled that his nominee to lead the Federal Trade Commission is likely to look more favourably on mergers and acquisitions. Gary Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to be resign and be replaced by a more crypto-friendly regulator. He has also proposed to cut the funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Education Department.<\/p>\n

Tighter borders<\/h2>\n

The president\u2019s hawkish immigration stance resonated broadly with voters and appears to have been instrumental in his electoral success. Since winning the election, Donald Trump has strongly re-affirmed his commitment to reducing immigration by increasing funding for Border Patrol, closing the southern border and deploying the National Guard and military to deport millions of undocumented immigrants who have entered the country over the past three years. Such an exercise would be modelled after General Eisenhower\u2019s Operation Wetback in 1954 during which the US deported one million illegal and legal immigrants under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act[v]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While the scale of the deportations is unclear, it is likely that there will be a concerted attempt to remove recent arrivals, particularly the one million immigrants who no longer have a legal basis to stay in the country either because their claims have been rejected or because they have committed crimes. The next administration is also likely re-instate the \u2018Remain in Mexico\u2019 policy that was removed by President Biden. Overall, a combination of deportations and substantially tighter border controls are likely to meaningfully reduce immigration into the US and tighten labour markets.<\/p>\n

Investment implications<\/h2>\n

The impact on the US economy will largely hinge on the scale and sequencing of the Trump administration\u2019s measures\u2014tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and deportations. Deregulation and streamlining government operations could deliver supply-side efficiencies, boosting productivity. However, a policy of mass deportation could constrain the labour force, reducing potential output.<\/p>\n

The extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) may not inject fresh stimulus, yet it could bolster business sentiment by staving off a tax increase that was expected under a Harris administration. Meanwhile, tariffs are likely to lift price levels in the US, with the ultimate inflationary impact depending on the dollar\u2019s response and the potential for retaliatory actions from trading partners.<\/p>\n

So, what does this mean for markets? Following last Tuesday\u2019s election, equities have rallied. The S&P 500 rose by 3.7%, global equities by 2.4%, and US small-cap stocks by an impressive 6%. Chinese equities, as anticipated, dipped, though only by 1.3%. Yet the durability of this US-centric rally will likely be determined by the path of US bond yields, which initially spiked but have since returned to around 4.3%, close to election night levels[vi]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If, as we expect, a Trump administration\u2019s second term brings faster and more effective policy implementation, bond markets could face renewed pressure. The administration\u2019s core agenda\u2014tax cuts, tariffs, and tightened immigration\u2014points toward higher government deficits or rising inflation, or both. This combination poses a particular challenge for US bond markets.<\/p>\n

In response, we are maintaining a cautious stance on global bonds, remaining underweight, while keeping our overweight position in equities, where higher nominal growth should support earnings.<\/p>\n

We retain a sharply underweight position in China-centric equities and favour US-based \u201cnational champions,\u201d including some of the prominent tech leaders. We also expect a stronger dollar, particularly against the euro, and continue to hold gold as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) and other emerging economies increase their gold reserves.<\/p>\n

In short, this \u201cregime change\u201d in Washington signals higher bond yields, elevated inflation, stronger nominal growth, and a firmer dollar\u2014at least until a multipolar world order more fully emerges.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA)<\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/c72fac7b-4b0c-4981-8bc8-8999bde17900<\/a><\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a> https:\/\/crsreports.congress.gov\/product\/pdf\/IF\/IF10667<\/a><\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> https:\/\/sgp.fas.org\/crs\/natsec\/R45618.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

[v]<\/a> https:\/\/www.archives.gov\/milestone-documents\/alien-and-sedition-acts<\/a><\/p>\n

[vi]<\/a> Bloomberg, data as at 11\/11\/2024<\/p>\n

\n

This document is intended for retail investors in South Africa only. You should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This document has been issued by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul\u2019s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC329859, and which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.<\/p>\n

This document has been prepared for marketing and information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the material is based has been obtained in good faith, from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.<\/p>\n

This document should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this material when taking individual investment and\/or strategic decisions.<\/p>\n

The value of investments and any income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. If investing in foreign currencies, the return in the investor\u2019s reference currency may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and may not be repeated. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the J. Safra Sarasin Holding Ltd group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of their own judgement.<\/p>\n

The index data referenced is the property of third-party providers and has been licensed for use by us. Our Third-Party Suppliers accept no liability in connection with its use. See our website for a full copy of the index disclaimers https:\/\/ sarasinandpartners.com\/important-information\/.<\/p>\n

Where the data in this document comes partially from third-party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third-party data.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2024 Sarasin & Partners LLP \u2013 all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact\u00a0marketing@sarasin.co.uk<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Having had time to follow the results and market reaction to the last week\u2019s US presidential election, we take a closer look at Donald Trump\u2019s key policies around lower taxes, higher tariffs, deregulation, and tighter borders, and assess what this could all mean for investors on a global scale. On 5 November, Donald Trump decisively...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":15470,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[140,28],"tags":[],"coauthors":[89],"class_list":["post-9829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicview","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nDonald Trump\u2019s decisive win heralds a regime shift for the US and the global order - Sarasin & Partners South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Donald Trump\u2019s decisive win heralds a regime shift for the US and the global order. 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