{"id":4460,"date":"2021-04-20T12:37:17","date_gmt":"2021-04-20T11:37:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/?p=4460"},"modified":"2021-05-17T12:21:24","modified_gmt":"2021-05-17T11:21:24","slug":"why-were-positive-on-the-experience-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/za\/think\/why-were-positive-on-the-experience-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Why we’re positive on the experience economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

As global, thematic investors, we look for the long-term trends that will shape the investment landscape for years to come. Consumer behaviour and income growth are by no means new considerations, but they remain vital to identifying long-term trends and the companies best positioned to benefit.<\/h3>\n

COVID-19 has shown the resilient nature of societies and indeed both consumers and businesses alike. Appreciating the impact of the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines, and anticipating the behaviour of consumers as governments reduce mobility restrictions, will be key to stock selection within our thematic process going forwards.<\/p>\n

This is where our Evolving Consumption theme comes in \u2013 the study of people, their behaviours and their spending.<\/p>\n

As the name suggests, consumption is not a fixed state. Over time, who the influential consumers are and what they spend on will change. By 2030, over two thirds of the global population are expected to be middle class1<\/sup>, with most of this growth coming from emerging markets, underpinned by female income growth and new generations entering the workforce. By understanding these influential consumers, we can start to identify the sectors and companies likely to provide goods and services that are most desired over the decades to come.<\/p>\n

One area that\u2019s seen above average growth for some years now, underpinned by rising wealth both geographically and intergenerationally, is the experience economy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Consumer preferences have shown that \u2018experiences\u2019 are increasingly preferred to \u2018objects\u2019. Although part of this preference will be underpinned by the strong relationship between rising disposable income and greater discretionary spending, we believe there are also psychological factors behind the trend. Enjoyment of consumption is measured by utility, and it has been shown that \u2018experiences\u2019 tend to provide greater and more prolonged utility to individuals when compared with \u2018objects\u2019.<\/p>\n

This shift in consumer preference can be seen in the growth rates of different Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) categories. \u00a0This chart shows how growth in spending on live entertainment and spectator sports was notably ahead of average PCE growth and other individual categories such as casinos and cinemas2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This is not necessarily a new trend however, Live Entertainment and Sports have been gradually increasing their share of PCE over time, up from 0.25% in 1970 to 0.45% in 20173<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, despite Millennials showing a greater preference for experiences (research suggests over 70% of this age group prefer experiences over objects4<\/sup>), older and wealthier consumers are the largest spenders5<\/sup>. As younger generations enter the workforce and their spending power increases, we see these growth trends strengthening.<\/p>\n

You had to be there <\/strong><\/h3>\n

So why are live experiences so compelling to consumers and to us as investors? We believe that the emotional aspect of live experiences is impossible to replicate using technology. Technology can play an increasing role, for example through the live streaming innovations used during the pandemic, but rather than a threat, we think the ability to also offer live streams can be an incremental revenue stream for event promoters. This is a view that is shared by companies such as Live Nation and Eventbrite.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, as the economics within the music industry for artists continue to evolve, we expect to see an increase in supply of live events. Touring and playing live concerts is the greatest value offering for artists, and this is where they generate the most of their income. Live Nation estimates that income from touring for an artist is 7x what they can earn from streaming and recorded music6<\/sup>. \u00a0This increased supply of events provides promoters such as Live Nation and Eventbrite with even greater growth opportunities.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 has certainly been a challenge<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For a sector that thrives on proximity, atmosphere and crowds, the pandemic provided an unprecedented, potentially existential, threat. Multiple cancellations, postponements and a level of financial strain not likely seen by many before has put huge pressure on event promoting companies, and while government help, where available, has gone some way to ease the pain, without live crowds, the industry isn\u2019t viable. However, as vaccines continue to rollout and pathways to reopening are laid out, there are reasons to be optimistic.<\/p>\n

Will crowds return? We think so. As proposed by Maslow in 1943 in his seminal paper, A Theory of Human Motivation<\/em>, humans are social beings. Along with basic needs such as shelter and safety, we also have psychological and self-fulfilment needs, which include the need to belong, accomplish and be creative. Many of these are met by live events and provide rationale as to why we believe that the demand for live events will return.<\/p>\n

It is early days in the UK, but globally, there are signs that crowds are indeed returning. In countries with lower cases, such as Australia and New Zealand, we have already seen stadiums complete with crowds. In China, the first major economy to reopen crowds have returned to music venues and theme parks. In the UK, there are early signs of demand returning, with many Summer events selling out in seconds. Live Nation also suggest that around 80% of us held onto tickets for postponed events, thus we can be confident of crowds returning as economies continue to reopen7<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Building back better <\/strong><\/h3>\n

As the world emerges from the pandemic, many companies have discussed how the pandemic forced them to really examine cost bases and the efficiency of its operations. As a result, many of the companies that we monitor closely are returning to growth as leaner companies, with more efficient business models. Not only does this suggest we could see more profitable businesses going forwards, importantly, we believe that many businesses that will be more profitable than current consensus estimates.<\/p>\n

We are not na\u00efve in terms of the challenges that lie ahead and recognise it will not be a straight forward recovery. However, we think the last year offers a salient reminder of what investing for the long-term really means \u2013 multi-year, often multi-decade ownership. And that so long as you have good reason for owning a company, you should continue to do so.<\/p>\n

Many of the companies that we monitor closely are returning to growth as leaner companies, with more efficient business models.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Company in focus \u2013 Walt Disney<\/h3>\n

Thanks to its unrivalled intellectual property, Disney is able to operate in a number of arenas each benefitting from relatively inelastic demand. For example, trips to Disney Theme Parks, tickets for new film releases and video on demand (SVOD) subscriptions.<\/p>\n

At its core, Disney is a content machine, able to generate multiple revenue streams for each piece of content, ranging from Minnie & Mickie, to Star Wars and Marvel. Since Disneyland first opened in 1955, Disney\u2019s expanding Theme Park business has been a key element of the company\u2019s storytelling capabilities, and continues to contribute to a significant proportion of Disney\u2019s revenue and its profits (in 2019 - 31% of revenues and 33.1% of profits8<\/sup>).<\/p>\n

However, as the pandemic took hold in early 2020, Disney\u2019s Theme Parks across the globe were shuttered. Coupled with global cinema closures, a number of Disney\u2019s businesses were under threat, and over the early months of the pandemic, the share price reached lows not seen since around 2014.<\/p>\n

As the pandemic took hold, we undertook stress testing exercises on each investee company - examining cash flow, dividends and covenants in the event of a sustained period of lower revenue and negative operating leverage. We had to answer two key questions: does the company have enough liquidity to stay solvent\u00a0 \u00a0throughout the pandemic, and do we still want to own it? In the case of Disney, with not just Parks but also live sports and content production also on hold, these were big questions.<\/p>\n

We concluded that we were confident Disney could withstand the pandemic, and our investment thesis, founded on the opportunity for the streaming business, was not just intact, but likely to be boosted.<\/p>\n

Crucially, the exercise enabled us to identify that the shares were undervalued in March and April 2020 - allowing us to start or build positions where appropriate. As we pass a year since the beginning of the pandemic, the share price chart highlights just how beneficial our process has been.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

1<\/sup>Source: The Brookings Institution, Who gained from global growth last decade and who will benefit by 2030? 16<\/em> January 2020.<\/p>\n

2<\/sup>Source: Berenberg Capital Markets (BCM), Live Nation Entertainment Research Note<\/em>, May 14 2020<\/p>\n

3<\/sup>Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Live Nation Research Note, 2 April 2017<\/p>\n

4<\/sup>Source: Neilsen, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Live Nation Research Note, 2 April 2017<\/p>\n

5<\/sup>Source: Morgan Stanley, Live Nation Entertainment Research Note<\/em>, 23 January 2020.<\/p>\n

6<\/sup>Source: Berenberg Capital Markets (BCM), Live Nation Entertainment Research Note<\/em>, May 14 2020<\/p>\n

7<\/sup>Source: Morgan Stanley, Tech, Media & Telecom Conference<\/em>, February 2021<\/p>\n

8<\/sup>Source: Disney, Annual Report<\/em>, 2020<\/p>\n

\n

Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you are a private investor, you should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This promotion has been approved by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul\u2019s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England & Wales with registered number OC329859 which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 47511.<\/p>\n

Please note that the prices of shares and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.<\/strong> This can be as a result of market movements and also of variations in the exchange rates between currencies. Past performance is not a guide to future returns and may not be repeated.<\/strong><\/p>\n

All details in this document are provided for marketing and information purposes only and should not be misinterpreted as investment advice or taxation advice. This document is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell shares in the fund. You should not act or rely on this document but should seek independent advice and verification in relation to its contents. Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The views expressed in this document are those of Sarasin & Partners LLP and these are subject to change without notice.<\/p>\n

Where the data in this document comes partially from third party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third party data.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2021 Sarasin & Partners LLP \u2013 all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact marketing@sarasin.co.uk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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