{"id":9270,"date":"2023-11-29T16:12:38","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T16:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/sarasin-climate-blog-enso-is-coming-to-stay\/"},"modified":"2023-12-15T14:50:50","modified_gmt":"2023-12-15T14:50:50","slug":"sarasin-climate-blog-enso-is-coming-to-stay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/sarasin-climate-blog-enso-is-coming-to-stay\/","title":{"rendered":"Sarasin climate blog: ENSO is coming to stay"},"content":{"rendered":"

This winter, dwellers in the northern hemisphere should expect a lengthy visit from ENSO - the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation. ENSO brings extreme weather that can cause myriad social and economic impacts, and there is 80% chance of it continuing in the Northern hemisphere during March-May 2024.<\/p>\n

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), expect a \"strong\" El Ni\u00f1o, with\u00a0a 75-85% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 1.5\u00b0C above November-January seasonal averages.<\/p>\n

To learn more about the NOAA\u2019s diagnostic discussion of ENSO, visit: https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml<\/a><\/p>\n

Climate change plus El Ni\u00f1o = worse<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We know that global warming is intensifying the effects of El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but how does this affect the global economy?<\/p>\n

A recent paper finds that \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o persistently reduces country-level economic growth; we attribute $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global income losses to the 1982\u201383 and 1997\u201398 El Ni\u00f1o events, respectively.\u201d<\/p>\n

The authors estimate that more powerful ENSO effects due to global warming could cause $84 trillion of economic value to be lost during the 21st-century.<\/p>\n

They conclude: \u201cOur results highlight the sensitivity of the economy to climate variability independent of warming and the potential for future losses due to anthropogenic intensification of such variability.\u201d<\/p>\n

If you would like to read more, the full paper Persistent effect of El Ni\u00f1o on global economic growth<\/em> by Christopher W. Callahan and Justin S. Mankin is available here: https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adf2983<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n

This document is intended for retail investors and\/or private clients. You should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This document has been issued by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul\u2019s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC329859, and which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.<\/p>\n

This document has been prepared for marketing and information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the material is based has been obtained in good faith, from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.<\/p>\n

This document should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this material when taking individual investment and\/or strategic decisions.<\/p>\n

The value of investments and any income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. If investing in foreign currencies, the return in the investor\u2019s reference currency may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and may not be repeated. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the J. Safra Sarasin Holding Ltd group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of their own judgement. Sarasin & Partners LLP and\/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and\/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document.<\/p>\n

Where the data in this document comes partially from third-party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third-party data.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2023 Sarasin & Partners LLP \u2013 all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact marketing@sarasin.co.uk<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This winter, dwellers in the northern hemisphere should expect a lengthy visit from ENSO - the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation. ENSO brings extreme weather that can cause myriad social and economic impacts, and there is 80% chance of it continuing in the Northern hemisphere during March-May 2024. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":14505,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"coauthors":[87],"class_list":["post-9270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-thematic"],"yoast_head":"\nSarasin climate blog: ENSO is coming to stay - Sarasin & Partners Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In our first Sarasin Climate blog, Climate Analyst Ben McEwen shares key takeaways from recent climate research on the ongoing El Ni\u00f1o effect.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/sarasin-climate-blog-enso-is-coming-to-stay\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sarasin climate blog: ENSO is coming to stay - 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