{"id":7880,"date":"2023-04-18T10:45:12","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T09:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/how-do-we-find-opportunities-in-the-high-carbon-transition\/"},"modified":"2023-04-25T10:33:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T09:33:59","slug":"how-do-we-find-opportunities-in-the-high-carbon-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/how-do-we-find-opportunities-in-the-high-carbon-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"How do we find opportunities in the high-carbon transition?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In conversation with Ben McEwen<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As companies attempt their transition to a net-zero world, we sat down with Ben McEwen, Climate Analyst at Sarasin & Partners, to understand more about what the high-carbon transition means for investors and how we assess the credibility of companies\u2019 climate claims.<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

What we are looking for in our high-carbon transition sub-theme is to protect our clients\u2019 capital and generate durable returns over the medium to long term.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Companies that aren\u2019t addressing significant transition risks, principally adaptation to climate change or mitigation of emissions, will be less likely to sustain their returns over the medium to long term.<\/p>\n

We often hear it\u2019s essential for all sectors of the economy to decarbonise rapidly, but why is high-carbon transition so important?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We\u2019re all increasingly cognisant of the rates of warming that we\u2019re seeing globally. As of last year, the world has experienced 1.1\u00b0C of global warming relative to the pre-Industrial Age. On land masses, that\u2019s actually about 1.6\u00b0C of warming, already above the Paris Agreement, which called for well below two degrees of warming, with a target of 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Current policies take us towards 3\u00b0C of warming by the end of the century. That will have profound socio-economic consequences, due to rises in sea levels, loss of biodiversity and more frequent extreme weather events. In the US, for example, climate and weather-induced damages were in the order of $165 billion in 2022. For context: the annual average was approximately $30 billion in the 1990s, increasing to about $58 billion in the 2000s. In short, we already see a significant increase in climate-induced damage.<\/p>\n

Analysis from bodies such as the Network for Greening the Financial System2 shows that scenarios with the worst macroeconomic damage are those in which we have unabated climate change. It\u2019s clearly in all stakeholders\u2019 interests to abate emissions as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n

Some indispensable industries \u2013 such as steel, chemicals and cement \u2013 will struggle to transition. What is the incentive for companies to change?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

There are really two forces that drive change: regulation and increasingly attractive economic incentives for change. On the one hand, regulatory and legislative incentives drive companies to decarbonise. This already has an effect in Europe, where the price of carbon recently reached \u20ac100 per tonne for the first time in history.<\/p>\n

Coupled with this, are the economics of transition. The cost of offshore wind energy fell by approximately 60% between 2010 and 2021. Over the same period, the cost of solar energy has fallen by 83% and the cost of producing electric batteries is down 89%.3 This means companies have an increasingly compelling economic rationale to expedite the change to net zero. However, we do have to bear in mind the significant differences between industries in terms of their ability to change \u2013 and nuances within specific industries.<\/p>\n

Given these differences, how do you go about finding companies that are likely to perform well over the coming years as we transition to net zero?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We can\u2019t expect industries to decarbonise at a linear pace that will take us all to net zero. The steel industry will decarbonise at a different pace to the cement industry, and the chemical industry will have its own path to follow. We also have to consider the individual firms within those sectors, as well as the core competencies and attributes that could enable them to make the transition.<\/p>\n

Essentially, what we\u2019re looking for in our high-carbon transition sub-theme \u2013 as we do in all of our themes \u2013 is to protect our clients\u2019 capital and generate durable returns over the medium to long term. Companies that aren\u2019t addressing significant transition risks, principally adaptation to climate change or mitigation of emissions, will be less likely to sustain their returns over the medium to long term. We have to consider whether our clients\u2019 capital would be put at risk by investing in those companies.<\/p>\n

How does Sarasin assess the credibility of a company\u2019s transition targets?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We draw on a variety of sources, including our own Sustainability Impact Matrix (the SIM), in an attempt to standardise the type of information we seek from every company. The SIM presents over 160 questions on a range of environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics to help us pin down where a company might be vulnerable to ESG- related risks. We also use some external data providers to help us think about companies\u2019 physical risks and the viability of their transition pathways.<\/p>\n

Importantly, we bring internal and external ESG and transition metrics together with our fundamental analysis. A company might score highly in terms of its alignment with climate targets but still, in our fundamental analysis, be unattractive in terms of its ability to generate cashflows.<\/p>\n

Do you hold any companies in hard-to- abate industries in the portfolios?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Two interesting examples are Rio Tinto and Air Liquide. Rio is one of the largest mining companies in the world and it faces interesting challenges and opportunities in its decarbonisation journey. It has significant exposure to copper and lithium \u2013 both of which will be in high demand during and after the energy transition. By some estimates, production of global lithium will need to increase about 42-fold over the next 30 years to keep pace with battery demand, while copper is crucial in electrification and building smarter power grids.<\/p>\n

It faces a great set of opportunities, but it also has significant exposure to iron ore, which has high scope 3 emissions. These are outside of Rio\u2019s control, as they are caused by activities elsewhere in the value chain. The question is: How does Rio go about capitalising on higher demand for copper and lithium, whilst also decarbonising its business and reducing reliance on cash flows from iron ore, for which there is likely to be lower demand over time?<\/p>\n

Another interesting company in terms of the high-carbon transition is Air Liquide, a global leader in industrial gases. Today it has a high emissions footprint due to the energy intensity of its products, but it also has two interesting energy transition opportunities. The first is carbon capture storage, which has some controversial aspects, but will be needed in some form. The second is hydrogen production. Hydrogen\u2019s multipurpose potential has been much-hyped, but the industrial sector will increasingly need hydrogen. Air Liquide is a global leader in producing hydrogen and has good potential to generate enduring cash flows from that value chain.<\/p>\n

Does this process lead to avoiding companies in hard-to-abate sectors?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We don\u2019t rule out any specific industries. We aim to protect capital by looking at the world in terms of the themes that are shaping society. Given these forces, we seek to identify companies that are most likely to benefit as a result.<\/p>\n

There are companies in hard-to-abate sectors that won\u2019t protect our clients\u2019 capital. But these may also be companies that we can engage with and apply very specific targets for change. Shifting those companies towards a more responsible path can lead to capital protection and more durable cash flows.<\/p>\n

So yes, we can and will invest in high-carbon companies \u2013 if they meet our ESG requirements or can be shifted towards a responsible path. It remains an investment decision. If our research shows that a company\u2019s returns will be challenged, then we\u2019ll look for better opportunities elsewhere.<\/p>\n

\n

Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you are a private investor, you should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This document has been approved by Sarasin & Partners LLP of Juxon House, 100 St Paul\u2019s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8BU, a limited liability partnership registered in England & Wales with registered number OC329859 which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 475111.<\/p>\n

It has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the document is based has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verified such information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.<\/p>\n

Please note that the prices of shares and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.\u00a0<\/strong>This can be as a result of market movements and also of variations in the exchange rates between currencies.\u00a0Past performance is not a guide to future returns and may not be repeated.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect of any such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct. indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI\u2019s express written consent.<\/p>\n

Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of the Bank J. Safra Sarasin group accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of his or her own judgment. Sarasin & Partners LLP and\/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and\/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document. If you are a private investor you should not rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser. \u00a9 2023 Sarasin & Partners LLP \u2013 all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. Please contact\u00a0marketing@sarasin.co.uk.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In conversation with Ben McEwen As companies attempt their transition to a net-zero world, we sat down with Ben McEwen, Climate Analyst at Sarasin & Partners, to understand more about what the high-carbon transition means for investors and how we assess the credibility of companies\u2019 climate claims.   What we are looking for in our...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":13825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"coauthors":[87],"class_list":["post-7880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nHow do we find opportunities in the high-carbon transition? - Sarasin & Partners Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As the world attempts to transition to net zero, climate analyst Ben McEwen assesses what the high-carbon transition means for investors and outlines Sarasin\u2019s approach to assessing companies that are seeking to clean up their act.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/how-do-we-find-opportunities-in-the-high-carbon-transition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How do we find opportunities in the high-carbon transition? 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