{"id":1627,"date":"2019-10-11T06:38:35","date_gmt":"2019-10-11T05:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/market-news-11-october-2019\/"},"modified":"2020-05-23T09:25:00","modified_gmt":"2020-05-23T08:25:00","slug":"market-news-11-october-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/market-news-11-october-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Market news &#8211; 11 October 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Data were mixed\u2026<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The private sector Caixin services PMI in China was unexpectedly weak in September at 51.3 (vs 52.0 expected), although this headline weakness belied strength in employment and new orders sub-indices.<\/li>\n<li>German industrial production rose unexpectedly in August, as did Spanish and Italian, whilst readings for France and the UK unexpectedly fell. Overall France, Italy and the UK have recorded year on year (YoY) declines of 1.5-2%, Germany has fallen more, by around 5%, whilst Spain is an outlier to the upside at +1.7%. Industrial confidence surveys continue to depict a gloomy outlook.<\/li>\n<li>US core CPI missed on the downside at +0.13% mom after four months of solid beats, leaving the annual reading at +2.4%. Headline CPI was a touch below expectations at +1.7%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u2026monetary policy setters are highly divided on the correct policy stance<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The September ECB meeting minutes indicated that \u201call members\u201d felt easing was needed, with \u201ca clear majority\u201d advocating a resumption of QE and \u201ca very large majority\u201d agreeing to a rate cut. This is somewhat at variance with the public criticism expressed since the meeting by a number of Governing Council members, not just the traditionally hawkish Germans and Dutch, but also the French and the Baltic states. The bar for additional easing is likely high.<\/li>\n<li>The September FOMC meeting minutes indicated that whilst \u201cmost\u201d participants favoured the rate cut delivered, \u201cseveral\u201d felt that the policy stance was already sufficiently accommodative. The rationale for easing has primarily been \u201crisk management\u201d in the face of growing uncertainty stemming from trade tensions and slowing growth overseas, with the domestic economy still viewed as strong. The question is whether the two 25bp cuts since July are sufficient to offset the impact of overseas developments. Market pricing still regards another rate cut at the October meeting as more likely than not.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Stocks posted solid gains on rising optimism around Sino-US trade talks and Brexit negotiations<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>After last week\u2019s \u201crising recession risk\u201d scare, equities rebounded smartly this week as a Chinese trade delegation arrived in Washington and hopes rose for the raft of tariffs due for implementation on 15th October to be delayed.<\/li>\n<li>Sterling bounced past $1.25 towards the end of the week on \u201cpromising signals\u201d of a deal after Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met with Boris Johnson in Dublin. Technical talks are ongoing in Brussels ahead of the EU summit next week.<\/li>\n<li>As the backlash intensifies over the most recent ECB stimulus package to begin next month, European bonds yields and pan-European value equities (particularly Banks) were also up over the week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data were mixed\u2026 The private sector Caixin services PMI in China was unexpectedly weak in September at 51.3 (vs 52.0 expected), although this headline weakness belied strength in employment and new orders sub-indices. German industrial production rose unexpectedly in August, as did Spanish and Italian, whilst readings for France and the UK unexpectedly fell. Overall...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"coauthors":[79,80],"class_list":["post-1627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market news - 11 October 2019 - Sarasin &amp; Partners Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/row\/think\/market-news-11-october-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market news - 11 October 2019 - Sarasin &amp; Partners Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Data were mixed\u2026 The private sector Caixin services PMI in China was unexpectedly weak in September at 51.3 (vs 52.0 expected), although this headline weakness belied strength in employment and new orders sub-indices. German industrial production rose unexpectedly in August, as did Spanish and Italian, whilst readings for France and the UK unexpectedly fell. 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