{"id":27697,"date":"2022-11-16T12:23:40","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T12:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/ie\/?p=27697"},"modified":"2022-11-16T12:23:40","modified_gmt":"2022-11-16T12:23:40","slug":"the-week-in-markets-16-november-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/ie\/think\/the-week-in-markets-16-november-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"The week in markets – 16 November 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we eagerly anticipate the chancellor's Autumn Statement, we focus on US inflation and what the decline in UK GDP means for markets.<\/h3>\n

US CPI surprises to the downside, stock markets soar<\/strong><\/h3>\n

US inflation figures showed a slowing in the rate of price rises, up 7.7% over 12 months to October but below the 8% predicted by analysts and a decline from the 8.2% annual increase seen in September. The rate of increase was the lowest since January and led to hopes that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), will not have to continue with such an aggressive rate hiking programme.<\/p>\n

On a monthly basis, the headline CPI figure rose 0.4% vs a consensus forecast of 0.6%. Core inflation, which strips out more volatile prices such as energy, and is considered to be a leading indicator for overall inflation, fell by 0.4%, the first decline in seven months. Leading the decline was a fall in used car prices (-2.4%) as supply chains have continued to ease and the fall in discretionary spending hit demand.<\/p>\n

Whilst markets expressed relief at the news, there is still upward pressure coming from rising rents, up 0.7% over the month and 7.0% over the year. The services sector also saw increases due to continued tightness in the labour market (+0.5% over the month).<\/p>\n

In response to the CPI figures, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, joined a growing number of Fed officials suggesting that it may be possible to \u2018slow the pace of \u2026 rate hikes\u201d. Markets now expect another 0.5% increase at the Fed\u2019s next FOMC meeting in December, rather than the 0.75% rises seen in the past four meetings.<\/p>\n

UK GDP falls in Q3, likely signalling recession<\/strong><\/h3>\n

UK GDP fell by -0.2% in Q3, which, although beating consensus estimates of -0.5%, has led to many economists to conclude that this is the start of a protracted recession.<\/p>\n

The period was impacted by an additional bank holiday due to the late Queen\u2019s funeral. However, the decline means that UK GDP is now -0.4% below pre-pandemic levels, whereas US GDP is 4.2% above.<\/p>\n

Along with the rest of Europe, the UK has seen a significant inflationary shock from the increase in gas prices. However, the UK\u2019s situation has been exacerbated by a volatile political situation and weakening growth prospects. Markets are eagerly anticipating the new chancellor of the exchequer\u2019s Autumn Statement, which is widely expected to include sweeping spending cuts and tax rises.<\/p>\n

Market review <\/strong><\/h3>\n

Stock markets in the US had their most positive day in two years on Thursday following the release of inflation data. The moves were particularly pronounced in growth stocks, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ rising 7.4% on the day and ending the week up over 8%.<\/p>\n

Chinese stocks also rebounded on hopes that zero Covid policies will be eased, following reports that China\u2019s border with Hong Kong will be reopened in early 2023, with further travel restrictions being eased after that. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong posting their best week in over seven years, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index rising 6% on Friday alone.<\/p>\n

The failure of FTX, a crypto currency exchange, saw further losses on cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin down over 13%. Digital currencies have seen significant declines already this year, having not fufilled their role as an alternative to gold in times of high inflation, but rather showing correlation with equity markets. However, this latest development is linked to a liquidity crunch within the FTX exchange after investors tried to pull billions of dollars\u2019 worth of assets following a high-profile withdrawal from a rival exchange. The moves have uncovered an apparently opaque lending structure within the exchange and will lead to further concerns about lack of regulation and oversight.<\/p>\n

\n

Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n

All details in this article are provided for information purposes only and should not be misinterpreted as investment advice or taxation advice.<\/p>\n

Where the data in this article comes partially from third party sources the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication is not guaranteed, and third-party data is provided without any warranties of any kind.\u00a0 Sarasin & Partners LLP shall have no liability in connection with third party data.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2022 Sarasin & Partners LLP \u2013 all rights reserved.\u00a0 This article can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we eagerly anticipate the chancellor's Autumn Statement, we focus on US inflation and what the decline in UK GDP means for markets. US CPI surprises to the downside, stock markets soar US inflation figures showed a slowing in the rate of price rises, up 7.7% over 12 months to October but below the 8%...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":12602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"coauthors":[196],"class_list":["post-27697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nThe week in markets - 16 November 2022 - Sarasin & Partners Ireland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As we eagerly anticipate the chancellor's Autumn Statement, we focus on US inflation and what the decline in UK GDP means for markets.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarasinandpartners.com\/ie\/think\/the-week-in-markets-16-november-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The week in markets - 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